Overweight in Adolescence Can Be Predicted at Age 6 Years: A CART Analysis in German Cohorts
نویسندگان
چکیده
OBJECTIVE To examine, whether overweight in adolescents can be predicted from the body mass index (BMI) category, at the age of 6, the mother's education level and mother's obesity and to quantify the proportion of overweight at the age of 14 that can be explained by these predictors. METHOD Pooled data from three German cohorts providing anthropometric and other relevant data to a total of 1 287 children. We used a classification and regression tree (CART) approach to identify the contribution of BMI category at the age of 6 (obese: BMI > 97th percentile (P97); overweight: P90 < BMI ≤ P97; high normal weight: P75P90) at the age of 14. RESULTS While 4.8% [95%CI: 3.2;7.0] of 651 boys and 4.1% [95%CI: 2.6;6.2] of 636 girls with a BMIP97 (similar results for girls). BM I ≥ P75 at the age of 6 explained 63.5% [95%CI: 51.1;74.5]) and 72.0% [95%CI: 60.4;81.8] of overweight/obesity at the age of 14 in boys and girls, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Overweight/obesity in adolescence can be predicted by BMI category at the age of 6 allowing for parent counselling or risk guided interventions in children with BMI ≥ P75, who accounted for >2/3 of overweight/obesity in adolescents.
منابع مشابه
طبقهبندی تعداد فرزندان زنده به دنیا آمده با استفاده از مدل کارت (CART)
Background and Objective: Discriminant analysis and logistic regression are classical methods for classifying data in several studies. However, these models do not lead in valid results due to not meeting all necessary assumptions. The purpose of this study was to classify the number of Children Ever Born (CEB) using decision tree model in order to present an efficient method to classify demogr...
متن کاملPrediction of Preadolescent Overweight and Poor Cardiometabolic Outcome in Children up to 6 Years of Age: Research Protocol
BACKGROUND Dynamic risk estimations may enable targeting primary prevention of overweight and overweight-related adverse cardiometabolic outcome in later life, potentially serving as a valuable addition to universal primary prevention. This approach seems particularly promising in young children, as body mass index (BMI) changes at a young age are highly predictive of these outcomes, and parent...
متن کاملMetabolic syndrome in adolescence: can it be predicted from natal and parental profile? The Prediction of Metabolic Syndrome in Adolescence (PREMA) study.
BACKGROUND There are well-established predisposing factors for the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in childhood or adolescence, but no specific risk profile has been identified as yet. The Prediction of Metabolic Syndrome in Adolescence (PREMA) study was conducted (1) to construct a classification score that could detect children at high risk for MetS in adolescence and (2) to test its...
متن کاملTracking of body size from birth to late adolescence: contributions of birth length, birth weight, duration of gestation, parents' body size, and twinship.
Birth weight has correlated positively with adult body mass index (BMI), but rarely have birth length, duration of gestation, or parents' body size been taken into account. The authors examined tracking of birth length and weight, adjusted for gestational age, to late adolescence, with special reference to parents' height and BMI. Longitudinal information from a nationally representative sample...
متن کاملEarly Prevention of Childhood Obesity: Another Promise or a Reliable Path for Battling Childhood Obesity?
A recently published article by Gillman and Ludwig [1] strongly advocates for early obesity prevention. Indeed a child’s obesity life course appears to be determined by the age of 6 years as shown in compiled data on the natural course of BMI distribution from birth to 14 years ( fig. 1 ) in three German birth cohorts (Kiel Obesity Prevention Study (KOPS) [2] , Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropo...
متن کامل